Jan. 19th Bubble Watch: AAC

 Bubble Watch

AAC:

Locks for the Tournament

Houston: 16-2 overall, 5-0 conference

The metrics: NET #4, KenPom #6, Q1: 1-2 Q2: 2-0, Q3: 8-0, Q4: 5-0

- Best Win: Oregon (Neutral)

- Worst Loss: N/A

- Outlook: Continue to play well for high seeding, not many quality win opportunities, but plenty of ‘speed bump’ games that could lower their seed

On the Bubble

Memphis: 9-7 overall, 3-3 conference

The metrics: NET #63, KenPom #42, Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-3, Q3: 1-2, Q4: 3-0

-        Best Win: Alabama (Home)

-        Worst Loss: Georgia (Road)

-        Making a case: Memphis ranks #43 in the KenPom NCSOS, and #33 in the BPI SOS, they have looked like a tournament team in their big wins @ VA Tech and against Alabama

-        Case for the couch: Memphis was a favorite team in the preseason, expected to be a 2^nd weekend tournament team. They have lost multiple games where they didn’t show up to play (@ Georgia, @ Tulane, @ East Carolina, vs Iowa St.) They lack consistency and a point guard that can run their offense

-        The Verdict: Lean OUT

UCF: 11-5 overall, 3-3 conference

The metrics: NET #85, KenPom #77, Q1: 0-2, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 1-2, Q4: 6-0

-        Best Win: Miami FL (Road)

-        Worst Loss: South Florida (Road)

-        Making a case: The win against Miami is increasing in value over the past few weeks with the recent scorching hot run from the ‘Canes, but UCF lacks a signature second win against a tournament team.

-        Case for the couch: It’s tough to lose by 24 to the #218 NET ranked team, even if it is on the road, and still be considered come the end of the year. Furthermore, the Knights lack major opportunities for Q1/Q2 wins outside of 2 remaining matchups with Houston

-        The Verdict: OUT

Cincinnati: 13-5 overall, 3-2 conference

The metrics: NET #60, KenPom #69, Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 2-2, Q4: 7-0

-        Best Win: Illinois (Neutral)

-        Worst Loss: Tulane

-        Making a case: The 20-point win against Illinois is a great addition to their resume, but they, much like UCF, don’t have significant victories to pair with it

-        Case for the couch: Cincinnati’s remaining schedule only has 1 Q1 opportunity: at home against Houston

-        The Verdict: OUT

Teams not on the bubble: SMU, Tulane, Temple, East Carolina, South Florida, Wichita St., Tulsa