2022 NCAA Tournament Preview

NCAA Tournament Preview and Predictions

Contributors: 801 Bracketology, BracketDom, Michael Gross, and T3 Bracketology

Published 3/15/2022 @ 12:00 EST

South Region Preview

by: Sam Hadfield / @801Bracketology

At first glance, this region felt somewhat more chalky than other regions. The talent in the South is top-loaded, with heavy-hitters Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the top 4 lines. Add in a possibly underseeded Houston team, and this region could be extremely entertaining. Let’s jump into breakdowns and predictions of the first-round games.

Play-in Game: #16 Wright State vs #16 Bryant

What a great matchup to start with. Wright State just won the Horizon league by avenging losses to Cleveland State and Northern Kentucky. Their perimeter win player Tanner Holden has averaged 19.8 points per game throughout the season playing an absurd excess of 35 minutes per night.

Bryant finished off their Northeast Conference championship by blasting pre-season favorite Wagner by 27 points. Peter Kiss is one of the most charismatic players in the country and people are learning his name quickly. Hard to pick against one of these teams because they’re both fun to watch, but we’ll predict a game that comes down to the wire, resulting in a 2-point win.

Prediction: Bryant 69-67

#1 vs #16: Arizona vs Bryant

Arizona is one of the favorites to win the tournament and rightfully so. Tommy Lloyd has been a godsend to this team that was crippled in previous seasons by allegations of NCAA violations and threatened punishment. They finished 31-3 and steamrolled their way to a Pac-12 championship. They shoot the ball extremely well, and have 4 or 5 lethal options they can turn to at any point in the game. Kerr Kriisa, who I recently watched earn his first career triple-double in a game at Utah, sustained a severely sprained ankle during the Pac-12 tournament last week. His injury status will be a key as the tournament goes on and Arizona’s national championship aspirations become more of a reality. As for this game against Bryant, look for Christian Koloko and Benedict Mathurin to dominate the floor and lead the Wildcats to an easy first-round win.

Prediction: Arizona 87-63

#8 vs #9: Seton Hall vs TCU

The final game of the second round on Friday night is between these two battle-tested teams. Seton Hall held their own in the Big East, winning games against UConn and Creighton, with great nonconference wins against Michigan, Texas, and Rutgers. Their best players (Myles Cale, Jared Rhoden, and Kadary Richmond) can cause nightmares on the defensive end if you don’t secure the ball.

TCU has come on as of late, competing very well in the Big12 and winning games against Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech. However, this team does struggle to take care of the ball, often a pitfall in teams hoping to make a deep run. They don’t shoot the 3 well and are a very poor free-throw shooting team, ranking 323^rd out of 358 teams at just 66.8%. They’ve tested the waters in some of their best wins by getting down early before making a dramatic comeback. While comebacks make some of the best NCAA tournament stories and memories, it will be much more difficult to get down early and complete a comeback during the tournament than it was during the season.

Prediction: Seton Hall 63-62

#5 vs #12: Houston vs UAB

So far, this seems to be a popular upset pick among the top analysts. Houston comes into the game having 1 Q1 victory over the entire season, which dropped them to a 5 seed even with their top 3 NET ranking. They struggled throughout February and the beginning of March, losing twice to Memphis and once to SMU. However, they marched their way through the AAC Tournament and beat Memphis handily in the championship. They appear to have righted the ship and are hot at a good time. They’ll be a very tough out, especially for an upset-minded 12 seed.

UAB is the right team to play Houston. They are lethal from 3, shooting at a 38% clip, one of the best in the country. They have the veteran guard play often needed to win an NCAA Tournament game in Jordan Walker who just won conference player of the year in C-USA and scored 40 points in their semi-final heart-stopper against Middle Tennessee State. This team could give Houston fits all day, and I’ll predict them to do just that.

Prediction: UAB 68-64

#4 vs #13: Illinois vs Chattanooga

Another popular upset pick in the same pod of the bracket! Chattanooga comes off a dramatic championship win against Furman with David Jean-Baptiste hitting the game-winning buzzer-beating 3-pointer in the closing seconds of overtime. The Mocs have struggled this year with size and rebounding. The matchup between Silvio de Sousa, a Kansas transfer, and Cockburn will be wildly entertaining.

Illinois comes into this game after losing to a red-hot Indiana team in the quarterfinals of the Big10 Tournament. Brad Underwood has coached this team very well and noted that last year they struggled with fatigue after winning the Big10 championship and falling in the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. This team appears relieved to have had the extra 3 days to rest and prepare, and you better believe they’ll come out hot. Look for Kofi Cockburn to explode in this matchup, and Alfonso Plummer to hit enough 3’s to keep Chattanooga at arm’s length.

Prediction: Illinois 74-68

#6 vs #11: Colorado State vs Michigan

David Roddy vs. Hunter Dickinson. Need I say more? This game will get the tournament underway on Thursday, and you couldn’t have asked for a better beginning to the madness. David Roddy of Colorado State is a small-ball #5 who can drop 30 points on you from all areas of the floor and command the offense in a way that not many bigs can. Hunter Dickinson of Michigan is a small-ball teams’ nightmare with his ability to protect the rim and command the glass. Who will the matchup favor? We think Michigan pulls off the ‘upset’.

Prediction: Michigan 70-68 in OT

#3 vs #14: Tennessee vs Longwood

Tennessee comes into the tournament the hottest team in the country. They just finished 10 days of basketball in which they beat Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Texas A&M on the way to an SEC championship. Lots of discussion has occurred about their seed discrepancy with Duke, but suffice to say, they will be a tough matchup for anyone they play, and they have a good draw in this region of the bracket. They rely on the 3-pointer for much of their offense but have had periods where they go ice-cold this season. Defensively, they present a major challenge for any type of offense.

Longwood just wrapped up an excellent season that saw them win the Big South tournament. Since January, they have only lost once. They are an excellent 3-point shooting team, ranking 19^th in the nation. We see this as an excellent matchup for Longwood, and this game may come down to the final 2 minutes.

Prediction: Tennessee 67-64

#7 vs #10: Ohio State vs Loyola-Chicago

Loyola comes into this matchup as a one-point favorite over Ohio State, who limped into the tournament after losing in the first round of the Big10 tournament to Penn State. The Buckeyes have been a wildly inconsistent dumpster fire the back half of the season and would face major questions with another first-round exit. EJ Liddell has been the only good thing about this team in the past month and has entered national player of the year conversations. Look for Ohio State to run their offense through him to try and pull off the victory.

The Ramblers feel like an NCAA Tournament mainstay at this point, and they were great again this year. Sister Jean’s squad ranks in the top 20 in the country in both 3-point shooting and FG%. They’ve really found their rhythm in the last 2 weeks of their season and carried that momentum to an MVC Championship. We believe that momentum continues in a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Loyola-Chicago 79-72

#2 vs #15: Villanova vs. Delaware

Villanova comes into the tournament with prospects of winning another national championship. They have gotten excellent play from their top guard Collin Gillespie, who by the way, should probably coach this team after Jay Wright retires. There is one thing you can count on with this Villanova squad. You will have to beat them, because they don’t beat themselves. They take great care of the basketball, shoot over 80% from the free-throw line, and will compete for 40 minutes until the final buzzer in every game.

The Delaware Blue Hens are excited to make an NCAA Tournament appearance, their first since 2014. This team went on a hot streak through the CAA to win the championship and earn their date with the Wildcats. Jameer Nelson Jr. was a great story through that tournament run, look for him to have a good game. Villanova wins this won easy though.

Prediction: Villanova 82-66

                           Midwest Region Preview

by: Dominic Lese / @BracketDom

 

The Midwest has the potential to be one of the most competitive regions in this year’s field. From several National Title contenders to a slew of talented mid-majors eager to bust your bracket, this region should be chalked full of fun matchups and may have very little chalk when it comes to who wins. Let’s take a look at the favorites who could reach the Final Four in New Orleans.

                            The Favorites:

 

#1 Kansas (+200):

Led by Wooden Award favorite Ochai Agbaji, the Jayhawks are poised to make their first Final Four trip since 2018. Kansas won both the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament and enter the dance hot on a streak of 5 wins in a row.

Why you should pick them: Kansas has the talent and depth to beat any team in the field. Arguably the best player in the country in Agbaji, plus 7 others that can give the Jayhawks quality minutes.

Why you shouldn’t pick them: The Jayhawks were dominant in a great Big 12 this season, but can they beat quality opponents from other conferences? Kansas’ best OOC win came over Michigan State in their season opener, besides that they lost to Dayton and were obliterated by Kentucky.

#2 Auburn (+300):

Auburn enters the dance in a bit of a slump, but the regular season SEC champs still feature one of the most talented rosters in the country and are capable of going on a run. True Freshman Jabari Smith is one of the best forwards in the country, and the experienced guard play of Johnson and Green makes the Tigers backcourt a force to reckon with.

Why you should pick them: Their talent may be the best overall group of players in the region, plus Auburn’s top 10 defense will make a difference against other top teams.

Why you shouldn’t pick them: Can the Tigers win away from home? The Tigers have played three other top 5 seeds away from Auburn Arena this season, and are 0-3 in such games (UConn, Arkansas, Tennessee).

#5 Iowa (+325):

The Hawkeyes are one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 9 out of their last 10 and a Big 10 Tournament championship. Keegan Murray is a bonafide star, and as he goes, Iowa goes. Despite being the 5 seed, oddsmakers have Iowa as the third most likely team from the region to make the Final 4.

Why you should pick them: Keegan Murray. Plain and simple. If he keeps up his current level of play, no team in the country can stop him.

Why you shouldn’t pick them: Keegan Murray. What? Well, maybe the team’s over-reliance on him. He’s a star, but if he struggles in the tournament other players will need to step it up. Super-super senior Jordan Bohannon has done it before and has plenty of tournament experience, but can he step up and be the guy if needed?

The Second Tier: 

#3 Wisconsin (+1000):

The Badgers have been a fun storyline all season long. Led by breakout star Johnny Davis, Wisconsin won their third Big 10 regular-season title since 2015. Wisky ended the season on a poor note though, losing their regular-season finale at home to Nebraska (forcing them to share the Big 10 title), and falling to Michigan State in the Big 10 Tournament.

Why you should pick them: The Badgers have been disrespected all season, and continue to be, given 10-1 odds to win their region as a 3 seed. They defied expectations in the regular season and can do it again. 

Why you shouldn’t pick them: That said, Wisconsin is 10-1 for a reason. They overachieved to get a 3 seed according to most metrics, and are very reliant on one player, Davis. Davis has not looked 100% since an injury against Nebraska, and if he isn’t full-go then the Badgers could be looking at an early exit.  

#6 LSU (+1200):

The Tigers at one point this season were 15-1, ranked #12 in the country, and looked to be a clear National Title contender. Since then, the wheels have fallen off a bit. The Tigers dragged through a 7-10 finish to the season, and on top of that their head coach was fired amidst a recruiting scandal. The Tigers have the talent, but can they get back to playing to their potential with a new head coach?

Why you should pick them: The Tigers' start to the season was no fluke, as a talented roster full of guys like Tari Eason and Darius Days should be enough to beat anyone. If the Tigers can rediscover their early-season magic, a la UCLA last season, this team has the pieces to go on a run.

Why you shouldn’t pick them: As mentioned above, LSU’s current form, plus their head coaching turmoil, makes the Tigers a very risky pick to go far.

Summary:

If you’re filling out a bracket (and you should be), we feel that any of those five teams would be a fine choice. If you like going against the grain and trying to pick a big surprise, here are the odds for the rest of the teams in the region.

#7 USC (+2000)

#4 Providence (+2500)

#10 Miami (+2500)

#8 San Diego State (+2500)

#9 Creighton (+3000)

#11 Iowa State (+3000)

#14 Colgate (+5000)

#12 Richmond (+7000)

#4 South Dakota State (+7000)

#4 Jacksonville State (+10000)

#16s Texas A&M CC and Texas Southern (+20000)

First-round predictions:

Play-in game: #16 Texas Southern over #16 Texas A&M CC

The Tigers are legit, don’t let their overall record fool you because this team played a TOUGH out of conference, which included a blowout win at Florida. Corpus Christi may make this a competitive game, but this team didn’t even finish above .500 in a weak Southland Conference.

Prediction: Texas Southern by 11.

#1 vs #16: Kansas vs Texas Southern

Despite the rave review of Texas Southern above, these two teams are simply in a different stratosphere when it comes to talent, and the Tigers will have no answer for Ochai Agbaji.

Prediction: Kansas by 23. 

#8 vs #9: San Diego St. vs. Creighton

Both teams have been phenomenal this season, and on paper, this is an evenly matched game as 8/9 matchups should be. However, the big caveat as it tends to be in March is injuries. Creighton lost their star guard Ryan Nembhard to a wrist injury recently, and he was a major factor in the Bluejays success. Without him, Creighton will have a hard time scoring against SDSU and their #1 defense in the nation. If the Aztecs can get enough shots to fall, they should be able to take down Creighton.

Prediction: San Diego State by 6.

#4 vs #13: Providence vs. South Dakota St.

The first upset of the region! This is a TOUGH matchup for the Friars, who significantly overachieved according to about every metric to get a 4 seed. The Jackrabbits of SDSU have the #1 most efficient offense in the nation and could shoot the lights out against the Friars sub-top 100 defense. Providence does have a penchant for winning close games, but even that is due to regress to the mean eventually.

Prediction: South Dakota State by 4.

#5 vs #12: Iowa vs. Richmond

The Hawkeyes are playing about as well as any 1 or 2 seed in the tournament as of late, and while Richmond went on an impressive run to win the A10, Iowa was equally impressive winning a much more difficult Big 10. The analytics say this is closer to a #3 vs. #14 matchup than a #5 vs. #12, expect the Hawkeyes to make easy work of Richmond.

Prediction: Iowa by 10.

#6 vs #11: LSU vs. Iowa State

A battle of two teams who cracked the top 15 this season but sputtered down the stretch. The difference here is that Iowa State massively overachieved to get that high, and once their level of play regressed to the mean they barely held on to a tournament bid. LSU on the other hand IS as good as they started off the season playing, and conversely, they underachieved in the final months of the season. When you have two struggling teams facing off against each other, take the one that has the talent and analytics on their side. Someone has to get back on track, and LSU is the much likelier choice of the two.

Prediction: LSU by 9.

#3 vs #14: Wisconsin vs Colgate

The higher seed pick was far less easy than the others. If the Raiders can find a way to slow down Johnny Davis, they could absolutely outscore Wisconsin, as Colgate boasts the 24^th most efficient offense in the nation. Davis enters the game with a lingering injury as well, he should be able to play through and carry the Badgers to a victory but expect this one to be close.

Prediction: Wisconsin by 6.

#7 vs #10: USC vs. Miami

Another upset! The game is a true coin toss and quite the stylistic mismatch. USC has size and likes to crash the glass and score in the paint, while Miami is a fast-paced team that likes to get out in transition and try to outscore their opponents in shootouts. If Miami can dictate the pace of play, which they have shown the ability to do against teams with USC’s MO, they should be able to fend off the Trojans.

Prediction: Miami by 3.

#2 vs #15: Auburn vs Jacksonville State

Another mismatch. Jacksonville State does not have the athletes to stop a true NBA caliber player in Jabari Smith, and the Gamecocks may just be happy to be here after backdooring into the NCAA Tournament because of Bellarmine’s ineligibility.

Prediction: Auburn by 19

West Region Preview

by: Michael Gross / @mikezor052588

In the West region, Gonzaga gets the #1 seed as expected. Duke and Texas Tech (two teams Gonzaga played already this season, lost to the former but beat the latter), are the #2 and #3 seeds in this region. Arkansas and UConn got the #4 and #5 seed. Alabama got the #6 with Michigan St. getting the #7. #8 Boise State and #9 Memphis will face off for the right to play Gonzaga. 

Before I get into the matchups, in this rematch are some of my biggest gripes over what the committee did when it came to selection and seeding. First off, I did not have either Rutgers or Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers had a better argument because of their high-end wins, but there were a ton of losses to teams that weren’t even close to being NCAA Tournament caliber. As for Notre Dame, they beat Kentucky at home, UNC at home, and Miami on the road, that’s it. They were 4-9 in Q1/2, which means 17 of their 21 wins were in Q3/4. I would have had Xavier and TX A&M in. Next Gonzaga as the overall #1 seed should not be playing the top #16 seed in Georgia St. Some people debated them for a 15 seed, but Gonzaga should be playing one of the play-in winners, not the top #16 seed. My other grip comes from a geographical mistake. Arkansas is the 4 seed in this region. Their first and second-round games are in Buffalo, NY and they must play Vermont and potentially UConn in virtual road games just to get to play Gonzaga. That’s wrong to me, the #13 seed should not have a geographical advantage over the #4 seed. Final mention before getting into matchups and predictions. I have an issue with Duke on the #2 line, but not in this region. Texas Tech is properly seeded as a 3 because they do have high-end wins, but most came at home and they played a dreadful Non-Conference schedule where 9 of their 11 wins were Q3/4.

Play-in game: #11 Notre Dame vs #11 Rutgers

The first matchup pits Notre Dame and Rutgers.

Notre Dame has some experience with Paul Atkinson, Prentiss Hubbs, and Cormac Ryan. They also have a coach in Mike Brey who is familiar with coaching in the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame can really put up a lot of points when they get good shooting from their guards as well as good play inside. They defend decently well holding their opponents below 70 PPG. They have shown occasionally they can beat high-level teams. At the same time, they struggle to hold leads because they go through stretches where they can’t score or get stops. They turn the ball over too much.

As for Rutgers, it’s simple. They can beat anyone, but they can also lose to anyone. Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker are terrific, and Steve Pikiell has done a great job with this team.

Prediction: Rutgers 75-69

#1 vs #16: Gonzaga vs Georgia State

Gonzaga has played well all season. They played 5 high major opponents in Texas, Texas Tech, UCLA, Duke, and Alabama. They won 3 of those games. Also, they played in a much tougher WCC conference than usual and still only lost 1 game. They are led by Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Their strengths are how efficient they are on offense. As for weaknesses, they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, so if you can keep them out of the paint you have a chance. Also, in losses to Duke and Alabama they gave up over 80 points, so defense has been an issue at times.

As for Georgia State, after a tough start to the season, they finished strong winning 10 in a row including their run to the Sun Belt Championship. This school has upset Baylor and pushed Cincinnati as a heavy underdog in recent years. This team isn’t as good as those teams. They are good on defense only allowing 65 PPG. One glaring weakness is 0 games against top 25 opponents.

Prediction: Gonzaga 90-65

#8 vs #9: Boise St. vs Memphis

This is an interesting game between two teams that struggled at times in November and December but righted the ship as the season went on. Boise St. is a very good defensive team allowing only 61 PPG. Abu Kigab is a very good 2-way player. It’s a good thing Boise is good defensively because they don’t shoot the ball very well, shooting just 44% as a team.

Memphis has really improved as the season has gone on, especially without Emoni Bates. Jalen Duren has been the X-factor for the Tigers down the stretch of the season. Memphis has improved offensively as the season has gone on. At times they turn the ball over too much. If the game is close and it probably will be, neither team shoots free throws well. Boise shoots 65% from the free-throw line and Memphis shoots 70%.

Prediction: Memphis 64-60 

#5 vs #12: UConn vs New Mexico State

UConn doesn’t shoot the ball well overall at 44% but does shoot 35% from 3. The Huskies are led by RJ Cole who can score and pass the ball at a high level. He’s also not afraid to take the big shot.

As for NMSU. This is the 10th time in the past 15 years that the Aggies have made the NCAA Tournament. They are 0-9 in their previous Tournament appearances. Is this the year they finally break through? It’s possible as they statistically score and defend almost even with UConn. They have size down low with Johnny McCants and Teddy Allen is a great guard averaging 19 PPG. One might see they haven’t played a top 25 team, but they did beat Davidson and they won 6 Q1/2 games. However, they do struggle to score at times, and they don’t shoot free throws well.

Prediction: UConn 72-68

#4 vs #13: Arkansas vs Vermont

Arkansas really came on as the season aged. Early on there was question if Arkansas would get to the NCAA Tournament because they hadn’t beaten anyone of note in November and December in addition to their questionable losses against Vanderbilt and Hofstra. But they turned their season around with great wins over Kentucky, Auburn, LSU (twice), and Tennessee. They are athletic and have a good inside/outside game with JD Notae and Jaylin Williams. They score over 75 points a game, but they don’t shoot the ball very well, only 44% from the field and 30% from 3. They do shoot free throws well at 75%.

Vermont is a team that matches up well. They aren’t very athletic, but they defend at a very high level. They are very efficient on the offensive and defensive end. They shoot 49% from the field, and 36% from 3. They also only give up 60 PPG and they rebound the ball very well defensively. What I like most about Vermont is they get good shots every time down the floor while making their opponents take tough shots every time down. Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu could play for any team in the country. Save a one-point loss on the road in OT to Hartford without Davis, they have won 22 straight games. They rolled through the American East conference with a record of 17-1 with 16 double-digit wins. One weakness for Vermont is they haven’t played high major talent in a while, but they did beat a good UNI team, and also beat Colgate and Yale while hanging with Providence. I think Vermont will patiently pick Arkansas apart and with the help of a pro-Vermont crowd will pull off the upset.

Prediction: Vermont 68-65

#6 vs #11: Alabama vs Rutgers

Let’s keep the Bama piece very small. This team can beat anyone in the country. They’ve beaten Gonzaga, Baylor, Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas just to name a few. They’ve also shown they can lose to anyone. They lost to Missouri, Georgia, Miss St., and so many more inferior teams. Part of the problem is they are philosophically a 3-point shooting team and they aren’t good at shooting 3-pointers. They shoot 31% from 3 and chuck up 3’s like they shoot 50%. That has been a major factor as to why their defense isn’t very good. Long shots tend to lead to long rebounds and transition opportunities for their opponents. All that running back on defense and chasing gets you fatigued.

Prediction: Rutgers 72-65

#3 vs #14: Texas Tech vs Montana State

Texas Tech is pretty efficient offensively but doesn’t shoot the 3 very well at around 31%. What they do very well is defend. They give up only 60 PPG.

Montana St. shoots the ball well. They shoot 48% from the field and 37% from 3. I suspect they will struggle with Texas Tech’s size and defense. I will say this though. If the game is close Texas Tech only shoots 70% from the free-throw line while Montana State shoots 75% from the charity stripe.

Prediction: Texas Tech 72-55

#7 vs #10: Michigan State vs Davidson

This game pits two long-time coaches against each other. Michigan State has been very inconsistent most of the year. They have some good wins; they have some forgettable losses. They also don’t take care of the basketball, averaging too many turnovers.

Davidson has a good blend of playmakers and shot makers. This is a tough team to guard when you don’t see them constantly. It’s hard to point to a glaring weakness except that sometimes they start games slowly, but I don’t think that will be a problem in this game.

Prediction: Davidson 75-65

#2 vs #15: Duke vs. Cal State Fullerton

Not going to waste much time on this one. Duke is above average on offense, and they are above average on defense for the most part. If there is a glaring weakness it would be they know they are Duke and they don’t always play with the intensity of a national championship contender.

Cal State Fullerton has had a good season in a competitive Big West League. They are decent on offense, decent on defense. I don’t think they have the athleticism to keep up with Duke. I will say this, if the game is close, Cal State Fullerton shoots a crisp 77% from the free-throw line. I don’t think it will be close.

Prediction: Duke 84-60

East Region Preview

by: Tommy Forburger / @TBracketology

This region is going to be a fun one. Some have called it an easy path for Baylor and Kentucky to the elite 8, others foresee many upsets happening on day one. The outcome is likely to fall somewhere in between, but there are many exciting games to watch, nonetheless. Below is a breakdown of every first-round game.

#1 vs #16: Baylor vs Norfolk State

This game has the potential to be the best 1/16 matchup in this tournament, although we are likely headed for a Baylor double-digit win. Norfolk State is led by Head Coach Robert Jones who has done a phenomenal job building this HBCU into a regular contender to win the MEAC. Norfolk State has a dynamic Point Guard in Joe Bryant Jr, one of my favorite players to watch all season I might add, who can fill up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Kris Bankston also gives the Spartans some size on the inside that could allow them to at least compete in this game for a bit. 

Baylor on the other hand is becoming a household name. The reigning national champions have dealt with a ton of injuries this season, yet still found a way to the 1 seed line in March. Injury uncertainty remains for Baylor in the coming weeks, but the talent they have available should be enough to get by Norfolk State. Norfolk State should keep the game interesting for a significant portion of the first half before Baylor pulls away.

Prediction: Baylor by 15

#8 vs #9: North Carolina vs Marquette

This matchup is typical of most 8/9 games, it truly is a toss-up. The result of this game may come down to which version of North Carolina and Marquette show up to play. Both teams this year have proven they can beat the best, North Carolina has a 13-point road win over Duke while Marquette beat Illinois in the non-conference and swept Villanova this year among other solid Big East wins. However, each team has had performances on numerous occasions that has us questioning if they were even an NCAA Tournament team altogether. The up and down nature of both teams should make this an intriguing game. Each team here also has a player capable of taking over this game, Armando Bacot for North Carolina, and Justin Lewis for Marquette. This game might be close enough that it could come down to which star is able to impose their will more than the other and impact the game. This should be a relatively high-scoring game. Neither team would consider its strength to be on the defensive end, though Marquette might have a slight edge in that department. I’ll say Marquette wins a close game thanks to that slight defensive edge, and Justin Lewis hitting big shots late.

Prediction: Marquette by 3

#5 vs #12: Saint Mary’s vs Wyoming/Indiana

Let’s start with the First Four matchup. Indiana and Wyoming have similar styles with an inside then out approach to the offensive end and do not mind working through a half-court set to get a good shot. Both programs also get after it on the defensive end. The matchup to watch will be the star big men, Graham Ike for Wyoming, and Trayce Jackson-Davis for Indiana. A key stat to keep an eye on is who can get the other in foul trouble first. That could be a major difference in the game. With their similarities, this feels like a coin flip. We will give Wyoming the edge as the Cowboys have shown they can win close games more consistently than Indiana. This should be a game within three to five points in the mid-60s.  

Prediction: Wyoming by 3

Whoever wins that First Four matchup will enter a similar style of game against Saint Mary’s. The Gaels also play great defense, they held Gonzaga to just 57 points last month, and prefer a slower pace on offense. This is a game that has “first team to 65 points wins” written all over it. All three teams have also seen their respective point guards play good basketball down the stretch, another important component of winning in March. The statistic also remains that at least one team from the First Four almost always makes the Round of 32 or farther, and this is a good candidate for that to happen. Wyoming vs Saint Mary’s will be another close ball game, but in a similar contest, we will take Wyoming in an upset.

Prediction: Wyoming by 1

#4 vs #13: UCLA vs Akron

Akron enters the NCAA Tournament on an eight winning streak, including topping three solid MAC opponents in Buffalo, Toledo, and Kent State to win the conference tournament. The Zips have four players that average at least 10 points per game, and three that average over 13 a contest. Ali Ali leads the way averaging 14.2 points per game and is a fun player to watch. 

UCLA on the other hand has struggled all year with big injuries. Star players Johnny Juzang, Tyger Campbell, and Cody Riley have all missed numerous games, many of which came against above-average opponents. However, this may be a blessing in disguise for the Bruins. Role players Jaylen Clark and David Singleton have stepped up while those starters have missed time, which only makes this team deeper heading into March. Oh, and all of Juzang, Campbell, and Riley are healthy and playing well heading into the tournament. Akron’s admirable run through the MAC tournament likely ends here. UCLA can play numerous styles of basketball throughout any given game that should help them withstand any runs from Akron. The Zips have a lot of heart, so expect the game to be closer at the half, but for UCLA to pull away in the second.

Prediction: UCLA by 12

#6 vs #11: Texas vs Virginia Tech

This game has the potential to be one of the best games in the first round of this region. On paper, Texas should handle this matchup, but there are few teams hotter down the stretch than the Virginia Tech Hokies. Virginia Tech is coming off winning the ACC Tournament, including dominant wins over North Carolina and Duke to pull it off. This was likely a result the Hokies needed too, as they may have been left out of the field of 68 without securing the automatic bid. Hunter Cattoor was a major reason VirginiaTech was able to win the title, as the Junior scored 31 points including seven three-pointers in the win. Cattoor had been on a cold shooting stretch coming into the title game, but if he can build off the ACC Tournament Championship performance, Virginia Tech has a real shot. 

Texas will not make things easy for him or the rest of the Hokies on the offensive end. The Longhorns allow just 59.6 points per game and can put out lineups full of athleticism. Texas’s issue, at times, is scoring droughts. There are moments that Texas looks solid offensively and other moments where they can go five-plus minutes without making a basket. Texas makes enough shots and uses its elite defense to survive against Virginia Tech and advance to the Round of 32. This game should be close, and Virginia Tech will not go down without a fight. Either team that wins this game could give Purdue a ton of problems, should they get through Yale.

Prediction: Texas by 2

#3 vs #14: Purdue vs Yale

Yale scheduled a tough non-conference, playing games against Auburn, Vermont, Iona, Seton Hall, and Saint Mary’s among others. The Bulldogs stumbled a bit through that tough schedule, but it clearly prepared them for the home stretch. Yale finished the year winning 11 of its last 13 games, including a 66-64 win over Princeton to secure the Ivy League title. Many had Yale pegged as the conference favorites at the beginning of the season, and they proved it late. 

Yale’s opponent, Purdue, is led by All-American Jaden Ivey who is “must-watch” TV. Purdue has many other outstanding players outside of Ivey, but if you haven’t seen the Boilermakers play yet, you’ll be introduced to his talent just moments into the game. Purdue has stumbled in a few games of late in comparison to a dominant start to the year, but this team is still very capable of making a run through this region. The big question will be if the Boilers can lock-in defensively enough to stay alive.  Purdue’s elite shooting and size will become too much for Yale to handle in the second half and help them advance past the Bulldogs into an intriguing second round matchup against the Texas/Virginia Tech winner.

Prediction: Purdue by 9

#7 vs #10: Murray State vs San Francisco

A battle of two outstanding mid-majors. Murray State went through the entire Ohio Valley Conference season without losing a game and only lost two games all season. Murray State comes into March Madness riding a 20-game win streak. No matter what league you play in, that is impressive. 

Meanwhile, San Francisco found a way to finish in the Top-4 in one of the best years ever for the West Coast Conference. Both teams are capable of being solid on the defensive end of the floor but are more known for their offenses as the Racers and Dons each rank in the Top-50 nationally in points per game. Expect this to be a fun game for the neutral hoops fan, with the winner quickly turning into a potential darling of this year’s tournament. San Francisco will not go away in this game, see the Dons’ contests against Gonzaga for proof, but Murray State simply does not know how to lose. This is another one of those games that could be a coin flip for some, but we’ll take Murray State in a great game.

Prediction: Murray State by 4

#2 vs #15: Kentucky vs St Peters

Saint Peters, the Peacocks, might have one of the coolest nicknames in the field. Unfortunately, outside of your mascot bracket, that won’t be enough to get it done in March. Luckily for Saint Peter’s, they are a good team beyond the nickname. After a bumpy start to the year, this team looked impressive in MAAC play, including playing Iona close in both meetings, and going 3-0 against Monmouth. The Peacocks also come into the tournament on a seven-game win streak. A low-scoring affair is what Saint Peter’s will prefer as this is a team stronger on defense than offense, only allowing 61.8 points per game. It will be a difficult task to hold Kentucky to that number in this matchup though. 

It is well documented how special Oscar Tshiebwe is for the Wildcats but Kentucky is loaded with athletes that can make any team have nightmares. Kentucky has also found ways to win big games despite injuries this year and is getting healthier down the stretch which could help them in this region. Saint Peters leaves it all on the floor, but Kentucky’s elite athletes become too much for the coolest mascot in the tournament.

Prediction: Kentucky by 18