Bubble Watch: ACC Version

ACC:

Locks for the Tournament

Duke: 18-3 overall, 8-2 conference

The metrics: NET #13, KenPom #10, 4-1 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 5-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4

-         Best Win: Gonzaga (neutral)

-         Worst Loss: Florida St. (road)

On the Bubble

Miami: 16-5 overall, 8-2 conference

The metrics: NET #61, KenPom #54, 2-1 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 5-2 Q3, 4-0 Q4

-         Best Win: Duke (road)

-         Worst Loss: Dayton (neutral)

-         Making a case: Miami has put together one of the best stretches in the country, beating Duke, Wake Forest, UNC, and Virginia Tech in conference play, showing they have the ability to beat tournament level teams

-         Case for the couch: The metrics are not good at all for Miami, and some of their highest quality conference wins have lost value, with the recent plummet of UNC and Virginia Tech. Will it be enough to make it in?

-         The Verdict: Leaning In

Wake Forest: 17-5 overall, 7-4 conference

The metrics: NET #43, KenPom #41, 1-3 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 7-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4

-         Best Win: UNC (home)

-         Worst Loss: Syracuse (road)

-         Making a case: The bubble is weak, so some teams have to make it this year, right? Wake Forest has beaten a couple bubble teams soundly (UNC by 22, Florida St. by 22, VA Tech by 19)

-         Case for the couch: When your best win is a borderline tournament team, you really struggle to make a case

-         The Verdict: Last 4 Byes

UNC: 15-6 overall, 7-3 conference

The metrics: NET #37, KenPom #34, 0-6 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 8-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4

-         Best Win: Virginia Tech (home)

-         Worst Loss: Miami (road)

-         Making a case: The metrics tend to be fans of the Tar Heels, they rank highly in most areas, with a SOS ranked #14 overall, a #30 BPI rank, and high NET and KP rankings

-         Case for the couch: UNC hasn’t beaten a single tournament team this season, and have lost overwhelmingly to the tournament teams they’ve played

-         The Verdict: First 4 Out

Florida State: 13-7 overall, 6-4 conference

The metrics: NET #79, KenPom #78, 2-3 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 3-2 Q3, 5-0 Q4

-         Best Win: Duke (home)

-         Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (road)

-         Making a case: The Seminoles are trending upward and have beat Miami (x2) and Duke. They’ve proven they’re able to play up to the quality of opponents.

-         Case for the couch: After great wins, they frequently flop against opponents like Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and South Carolina

-         The Verdict: First 4 OUT

Notre Dame: 14-7 overall, 7-3 conference

-         Best Win: Kentucky (neutral)

-         Worst Loss: Boston College (road)

-         Making a case: Notre Dame is trending upwards and beating the teams they should be beating to make it into the conversation

-         Case for the couch: Besides the Kentucky win, they haven’t beaten any tournament level opponents

-         The Verdict: OUT